There’s a Lot Riding on the Current Regime Change

Regime changes are hard. Take, for instance, the current regime change from disinflation and falling rates to inflation and rising rates. As the previous regime lasted for over 40 years, there is a generation of investors who know nothing other than that experience. What makes regime changes difficult is that it requires investors to “unlearn”…

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More pain in Bondland

Bonds are having a bad day. In the aftermath of yesterday’s meeting of the Federal Reserve, rates are moving higher causing both stocks and bonds to move lower.

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The Trouble with Bonds

Whatever the Federal Reserve’s current and future decisions are regarding interest rates, it’s an important reminder that the Fed only controls the direction of short-term interest rates. The market controls the longer end of the curve. U.S. Treasury bond yields are a function of three factors: term premium, inflation, and economic growth expectations. Term premium,…

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The Jackson Hole Summit: Stay Calm or Run for the Hills?

Investors are forever chasing the next bit of economic news in the hope of determining the financial markets’ direction. Personally, for money management, I let rules-based systems guide me and view the news more as background noise.   This week, there will be much said about the Jackson Hole Economic Summit, a three-day annual international conference…

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