Technical Analysis
The Fed Announcement’s Implications for Banks
It’s about to get interesting… I think we’re about to see some bodies. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced another 25bps increase in interest rates. The Fed and Jay Powell made it clear that there is no trade-off between taming inflation and financial stability. Echoing the thoughts of his European counterparts, Jerome Powell said it’s the…
Read MoreWhat Can An Investor Do Right Now?
Despite the recent rally from the 4th quarter lows, the markets are still significantly down from their peaks. And while the tech rally has been impressive, the run might be starting to fizzle out. It’s possible that there still may be more declines ahead. Interest rates, after a brief pause, are back on the rise,…
Read MoreIs Bad News Good News?
If there’s anything I’ve learned in my 30-plus years of following the markets, it’s that the market is going to do what the market is going to do. Those who try to make sense of it will surely give up in despair at some point because there will be a time it defies conventional logic.…
Read MoreHere’s How the “January Barometer” Is Reading
On this last day of January, U.S. stocks are up around 5% month-to-date ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates Wednesday. This has been the strongest start since 2019 and the 16th best in the last 95 years… Does a strong start lead to a good year for U.S. stocks? Here are a…
Read MoreLet’s Focus On Understanding the Markets Right Now
Is recession around the corner? Will inflation spike as China reopens? Will the Fed stop raising rates in ‘23? We can talk all day about what might happen. And sure, it’s reasonable to say that rising interest rates are not conducive to growth assets or that the longer rates remain high the more damage could…
Read MoreThere Are Reasons to Be Optimistic About the Market
Last year was a challenging year for the stock market, with all kinds of economic and political uncertainties causing significant volatility. But as we begin this new year, it’s important to keep a long-term perspective and not get swayed by short-term market fluctuations. Technical analysis is a helpful tool in this regard because it allows…
Read MoreOur Top Concerns for 2023: Here’s What Numbers We’ll Be Watching
One thing I enjoy about investing is that the markets and the economy are like trying to solve a giant jigsaw puzzle. Rarely are you given all the pieces together to complete a scene but instead, you must piece together little bits of evidence, one at a time. The added challenge is that markets often…
Read More2022: A Year for the History Books (And Our Outlook for 2023)
2022 will be remembered as one of the worst years ever for a portfolio of stocks and bonds. Stocks and bonds both fell by double digits. It’s rare for stocks and bonds to fall in the same year. By my calculations, it’s happened just four times before this year going back to 1928. But in…
Read MoreA Hawkish Fed & A Defensive Stock Market
As most investors already know, the FOMC hiked interest rates again last week by another 50bps, establishing the Federal Funds rate at 4.25-4.50%. If you listened to Jerome Powell during the press conference, you know that he minced few words and was decidedly hawkish. CPI data came in better than expected, although inflation over 7%…
Read MoreThis One Investing Style Is Having a Banner Year
Trend-following managers are having a banner year in 2022 amidst a year of turmoil for traditional portfolios. Trend-following has provided valuable diversification to investors who may have otherwise had much larger losses in traditional allocations. Consider that the SG Trend Index, an index designed to track the 10 largest (by AUM) trend-following CTAs and representative…
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