Posts by Tim Fortier
More pain in Bondland
Bonds are having a bad day. In the aftermath of yesterday’s meeting of the Federal Reserve, rates are moving higher causing both stocks and bonds to move lower.
Read MoreThe Trouble with Bonds
Whatever the Federal Reserve’s current and future decisions are regarding interest rates, it’s an important reminder that the Fed only controls the direction of short-term interest rates. The market controls the longer end of the curve. U.S. Treasury bond yields are a function of three factors: term premium, inflation, and economic growth expectations. Term premium,…
Read MoreThe Death of 60/40: Where are we now?
At the beginning of 2022, I wrote a series, “The Death of 60/40.” The thesis was pretty simple. Real yields on bonds were negative, stocks were richly valued by historical measure, and the Fed had unleashed a monetary storm resulting in rising inflation. My conclusion that traditional stock and bond portfolios, especially passive index portfolios,…
Read MoreThe Rise of Direct Indexing: A Game Changer in Modern Investing
Discover the advantages of direct indexing as we delve into this powerful investment strategy while exploring its promising future.
Read MoreAre Prices Flying with the Blue Angels?
U.S. job openings fell to their lowest levels since March 2021 and U.S. labor market is now cooling pretty rapidly. But that’s good news. Find out why.
Read MoreThe Jackson Hole Summit: Stay Calm or Run for the Hills?
Investors are forever chasing the next bit of economic news in the hope of determining the financial markets’ direction. Personally, for money management, I let rules-based systems guide me and view the news more as background noise. This week, there will be much said about the Jackson Hole Economic Summit, a three-day annual international conference…
Read MoreThe World’s Second-Largest Economy Is Slowing
Don’t look now, but China, the world’s second-largest economy, is slowing down and looks to be in trouble.
Read MoreThe End of an Era
Investors should expect the experience of the past 30-plus years to be different than what’s coming the future. The same rules may not apply.
Read MoreThe July 2023 Scorecard
Across the market, stock averages were up for the month. The big winner for July though was not stocks, but commodities.
Read MorePutting Together the Pieces of the Global Economic Puzzle
Assembling economic puzzle pieces is like the number puzzle Suduko – and like a puzzle, figuring it out is more challenging than it looks.
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