Posts by Tim Fortier
SVB Collapse Sparks Concerns About Systemic Risks in Financial System
Two bank failures and a falling stock market. What is going on? The events of the past week have caught many investors off guard, but for our regular readers and clients, you know that we have been warning about the growing risks in the markets for some time. On March 1, I discussed how there…
Read MoreIs This the Death of Dividend Investing?
Dividends have historically been an important component of the overall stock market return. In fact, many investors view dividends as a crucial part of their investment strategy, particularly those who seek regular income from their investments. Over the long term, dividends have contributed a significant portion of the total return for many stocks. According to…
Read MoreRelative Strength Update: Risks May Be Growing
There’s an old saying that the only certainty is uncertainty when it comes to the financial markets, and it couldn’t be more true. For Avalon, the North Star that guides us through the markets has been and always will be Relative Strength. For over 20 years, we’ve researched and tested the Relative Strength strategy we…
Read MoreWhat Can An Investor Do Right Now?
Despite the recent rally from the 4th quarter lows, the markets are still significantly down from their peaks. And while the tech rally has been impressive, the run might be starting to fizzle out. It’s possible that there still may be more declines ahead. Interest rates, after a brief pause, are back on the rise,…
Read MoreIs Bad News Good News?
If there’s anything I’ve learned in my 30-plus years of following the markets, it’s that the market is going to do what the market is going to do. Those who try to make sense of it will surely give up in despair at some point because there will be a time it defies conventional logic.…
Read MoreHere’s How the “January Barometer” Is Reading
On this last day of January, U.S. stocks are up around 5% month-to-date ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates Wednesday. This has been the strongest start since 2019 and the 16th best in the last 95 years… Does a strong start lead to a good year for U.S. stocks? Here are a…
Read MoreHere is the Key Factor to Successful Diversification
This week, the Commerce Department released a number of data series that were HIGHLY recessionary. Retail Sales clocked in at -1.1% month-over-month, Industrial Production came in at -0.7% month-over-month, and Manufacturing Production registered -1.3% month-over-month. We just saw one of the worst two-month declines in retail sales since the Global Financial Crisis and the covid…
Read MoreOur Top Concerns for 2023: Here’s What Numbers We’ll Be Watching
One thing I enjoy about investing is that the markets and the economy are like trying to solve a giant jigsaw puzzle. Rarely are you given all the pieces together to complete a scene but instead, you must piece together little bits of evidence, one at a time. The added challenge is that markets often…
Read More2022: A Year for the History Books (And Our Outlook for 2023)
2022 will be remembered as one of the worst years ever for a portfolio of stocks and bonds. Stocks and bonds both fell by double digits. It’s rare for stocks and bonds to fall in the same year. By my calculations, it’s happened just four times before this year going back to 1928. But in…
Read MoreA Hawkish Fed & A Defensive Stock Market
As most investors already know, the FOMC hiked interest rates again last week by another 50bps, establishing the Federal Funds rate at 4.25-4.50%. If you listened to Jerome Powell during the press conference, you know that he minced few words and was decidedly hawkish. CPI data came in better than expected, although inflation over 7%…
Read More