Posts by Avalon Team
More pain in Bondland
Bonds are having a bad day. In the aftermath of yesterday’s meeting of the Federal Reserve, rates are moving higher causing both stocks and bonds to move lower.
Read MoreThe Trouble with Bonds
Whatever the Federal Reserve’s current and future decisions are regarding interest rates, it’s an important reminder that the Fed only controls the direction of short-term interest rates. The market controls the longer end of the curve. U.S. Treasury bond yields are a function of three factors: term premium, inflation, and economic growth expectations. Term premium,…
Read MoreThe Death of 60/40: Where are we now?
At the beginning of 2022, I wrote a series, “The Death of 60/40.” The thesis was pretty simple. Real yields on bonds were negative, stocks were richly valued by historical measure, and the Fed had unleashed a monetary storm resulting in rising inflation. My conclusion that traditional stock and bond portfolios, especially passive index portfolios,…
Read MoreForecasting September in Four Charts
By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, we take a step back and put things into the context of trends. The trend is our friend.
Read MoreThe Rise of Direct Indexing: A Game Changer in Modern Investing
Discover the advantages of direct indexing as we delve into this powerful investment strategy while exploring its promising future.
Read MoreAre Prices Flying with the Blue Angels?
U.S. job openings fell to their lowest levels since March 2021 and U.S. labor market is now cooling pretty rapidly. But that’s good news. Find out why.
Read MoreIt’s not about Nvidia… it’s about the broader market
Every headline and every tweet this week has been about one stock – Nvidia (NVDA) and their blowout numbers. Do your P&L a favor, don’t get caught up in the hype.
Read MoreThe Jackson Hole Summit: Stay Calm or Run for the Hills?
Investors are forever chasing the next bit of economic news in the hope of determining the financial markets’ direction. Personally, for money management, I let rules-based systems guide me and view the news more as background noise. This week, there will be much said about the Jackson Hole Economic Summit, a three-day annual international conference…
Read MoreThe World’s Second-Largest Economy Is Slowing
Don’t look now, but China, the world’s second-largest economy, is slowing down and looks to be in trouble.
Read MoreThe Most Important Charts for August
The second half of 2023 is shaping up to look very different than the first half. Adapt to these changes or risk getting left behind.
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