Posts by Avalon Team
Is Bad News Good News?
If there’s anything I’ve learned in my 30-plus years of following the markets, it’s that the market is going to do what the market is going to do. Those who try to make sense of it will surely give up in despair at some point because there will be a time it defies conventional logic.…
Read MoreHere’s How the “January Barometer” Is Reading
On this last day of January, U.S. stocks are up around 5% month-to-date ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates Wednesday. This has been the strongest start since 2019 and the 16th best in the last 95 years… Does a strong start lead to a good year for U.S. stocks? Here are a…
Read MoreLet’s Focus On Understanding the Markets Right Now
Is recession around the corner? Will inflation spike as China reopens? Will the Fed stop raising rates in ‘23? We can talk all day about what might happen. And sure, it’s reasonable to say that rising interest rates are not conducive to growth assets or that the longer rates remain high the more damage could…
Read MoreHere is the Key Factor to Successful Diversification
This week, the Commerce Department released a number of data series that were HIGHLY recessionary. Retail Sales clocked in at -1.1% month-over-month, Industrial Production came in at -0.7% month-over-month, and Manufacturing Production registered -1.3% month-over-month. We just saw one of the worst two-month declines in retail sales since the Global Financial Crisis and the covid…
Read MoreThese Tax Code Changes Could Affect Your Retirement Accounts This Year
Today, I’m going to step away from my work focusing on markets and investments to talk to you about something that will likely impact many of you. As a Certified Financial Planner, CFPⓇ I keep my eye on any major developments in the planning world, just in case something comes along that I think you…
Read MoreJanuary Market Review
Our Top Concerns for 2023: Here’s What Numbers We’ll Be Watching
One thing I enjoy about investing is that the markets and the economy are like trying to solve a giant jigsaw puzzle. Rarely are you given all the pieces together to complete a scene but instead, you must piece together little bits of evidence, one at a time. The added challenge is that markets often…
Read MoreIs It All Bad News?
2022 is officially in the books and many investors would say good riddance! Using the benchmark indexes as our “market” proxies, it was pretty ugly. But indexes can be misleading. The DJIA ended the year down -7.67%, which, given all the noise last year, really isn’t awful. The S&P on the other hand, fell -20.28%,…
Read More2022: A Year for the History Books (And Our Outlook for 2023)
2022 will be remembered as one of the worst years ever for a portfolio of stocks and bonds. Stocks and bonds both fell by double digits. It’s rare for stocks and bonds to fall in the same year. By my calculations, it’s happened just four times before this year going back to 1928. But in…
Read MoreA Story About Japan, the U.S. Dollar, & Gold
Investors woke up to a major macro surprise Tuesday morning when the Bank of Japan announced a de-facto rate hike by allowing the yield on their 10-Year Treasury to reach .50%. Although the Bank of Japan (BOJ) didn’t actually raise rates, the net result is the same. What the BOJ did was allow the 10-Year…
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