Technical Analysis
Let’s Focus On Understanding the Markets Right Now
Is recession around the corner? Will inflation spike as China reopens? Will the Fed stop raising rates in ‘23? We can talk all day about what might happen. And sure, it’s reasonable to say that rising interest rates are not conducive to growth assets or that the longer rates remain high the more damage could…
Read MoreThere Are Reasons to Be Optimistic About the Market
Last year was a challenging year for the stock market, with all kinds of economic and political uncertainties causing significant volatility. But as we begin this new year, it’s important to keep a long-term perspective and not get swayed by short-term market fluctuations. Technical analysis is a helpful tool in this regard because it allows…
Read MoreOur Top Concerns for 2023: Here’s What Numbers We’ll Be Watching
One thing I enjoy about investing is that the markets and the economy are like trying to solve a giant jigsaw puzzle. Rarely are you given all the pieces together to complete a scene but instead, you must piece together little bits of evidence, one at a time. The added challenge is that markets often…
Read More2022: A Year for the History Books (And Our Outlook for 2023)
2022 will be remembered as one of the worst years ever for a portfolio of stocks and bonds. Stocks and bonds both fell by double digits. It’s rare for stocks and bonds to fall in the same year. By my calculations, it’s happened just four times before this year going back to 1928. But in…
Read MoreA Hawkish Fed & A Defensive Stock Market
As most investors already know, the FOMC hiked interest rates again last week by another 50bps, establishing the Federal Funds rate at 4.25-4.50%. If you listened to Jerome Powell during the press conference, you know that he minced few words and was decidedly hawkish. CPI data came in better than expected, although inflation over 7%…
Read MoreThis One Investing Style Is Having a Banner Year
Trend-following managers are having a banner year in 2022 amidst a year of turmoil for traditional portfolios. Trend-following has provided valuable diversification to investors who may have otherwise had much larger losses in traditional allocations. Consider that the SG Trend Index, an index designed to track the 10 largest (by AUM) trend-following CTAs and representative…
Read MoreWatch What They Do, Not What They Say
Investor sentiment can be a valuable contrarian indicator. The idea is that when everyone is either too Bullish or too Bearish (as they are now) it implies that it may be time to consider the other side of what the majority is thinking. We gauge the level of Bullishness/Bearishness through sentiment surveys… and when levels…
Read MoreThere Is No One-Size-Fits-All In Investing
The S&P 500 index just staged a very impressive rally off the June lows. Not only did prices rally, but we saw some much-improved breadth conditions – meaning more stocks have participated in the June rally than did in April/May. Healthy Bull Markets require broad stock participation – and as you can see, the percentage…
Read MoreSome Good News for Commodities
In case you hadn’t noticed, Commodities have come under a lot of pressure since June. However, there is some good news for Commodities. The recent sell-off in these inflationary assets is beginning to subside – and not surprisingly, it is happening at very logical prices. These are positive developments for the Bulls, as the appetite…
Read MoreIt’s Going to Be a Really Big Week for Investors
On Wednesday, there is the FOMC meeting and announcement on interest rates. The market is currently showing a 75.1% probability that the Fed will increase rates by 75 bps. With inflation running at or above 10% and the Fed mandate to get inflation down to 2%, I am not sure that a mere 75 basis…
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