Posts by Avalon Team
A Hawkish Fed & A Defensive Stock Market
As most investors already know, the FOMC hiked interest rates again last week by another 50bps, establishing the Federal Funds rate at 4.25-4.50%. If you listened to Jerome Powell during the press conference, you know that he minced few words and was decidedly hawkish. CPI data came in better than expected, although inflation over 7%…
Read MoreAll I Want for Christmas Is a Rally
Dear Santa, all I want for Christmas is a rally! Let’s hope Santa comes through… Each and every December, investors wait in anticipation hoping to see what the jolly big guy in the red suit brings. No, I’m not talking about gifts under the tree. I’m referring to a stock market rally that often comes…
Read MoreThis One Investing Style Is Having a Banner Year
Trend-following managers are having a banner year in 2022 amidst a year of turmoil for traditional portfolios. Trend-following has provided valuable diversification to investors who may have otherwise had much larger losses in traditional allocations. Consider that the SG Trend Index, an index designed to track the 10 largest (by AUM) trend-following CTAs and representative…
Read MoreBig Moves for a Forgotten & Unloved Asset Class
Have individual investors forgotten there is more than one asset class? It sure feels that way, because lately, all the excitement seems to be about one asset class – stocks. I get it, stocks have had an incredible rally coming off their October 2022 lows. But I’m not focusing on stocks today. There’s another asset…
Read MoreHere’s the Real Catalyst Moving the Market
There will always be an endless string of news bites telling us why the market is moving in one direction or the other. I’m sure you’ve heard them… It’s interest rates or inflation. It’s Opec, Russia, or the latest crypto crash. It’s not that those things aren’t important… But they tend to be more of…
Read MoreWhat We Can Learn From the Bullish Percent Index
The behavior of the stock market is controlled by large fund managers. There are organized “buy programs” and “sell programs.” When a buy program is in play, “demand is in control.” There’s a concerted effort to accumulate stock positions in a controlled way that gradually pushes prices higher. When there’s a buy program in play,…
Read MoreDon’t Fight the Fed
Ask any market technician about the late, great, Marty Zweig and you’ll hear about a time-tested set of trading rules that are just as relevant today as they were when Marty first put pen to paper. For example, the #1 rule: The trend is your friend, don’t fight the tape. This is at the very…
Read MoreThis Is a Market of Stocks – Not a Stock Market
Have you noticed that the financial media can’t get enough Doom & Gloom? Every headline is another big loser. Another miss. Another crash. The media knows what buttons to push – they’re masters at it. And they’re up to their old tricks again… I hope you’re not falling for it. Let’s break the cycle starting…
Read MoreAre Investors Too Optimistic?
Stocks rallied last week into last Friday’s close – an encouraging development! But dare I say… investors are optimistic. You see, if you’ve been paying attention, you’d know that many Fridays this year have experienced sizable sell-offs. Why? Because traders wanted no part in holding positions over the weekend. The risk was too great. What…
Read MoreHere’s What an Aggressive Fed Means for the Housing Market
Following last Thursday’s very impressive upside move, investors were looking for confirmation with some follow-through on Friday. Unfortunately, that never happened… All the excitement and talk of engulfing patterns and upside reversals were all for naught, as stocks did what they have done many times throughout the bear of 2022… They sold off. Inflation data…
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