Posts Tagged ‘economic volatility’
It’s Going to Be a Really Big Week for Investors
On Wednesday, there is the FOMC meeting and announcement on interest rates. The market is currently showing a 75.1% probability that the Fed will increase rates by 75 bps. With inflation running at or above 10% and the Fed mandate to get inflation down to 2%, I am not sure that a mere 75 basis…
Read MoreIt’s All About Finding Support
We can just call today’s theme SUPPORT… Because if what I’m about to show you doesn’t hold support, then the next few months could look a lot like the summer of 2008. There’s a simple way to visualize the overall direction and strength of our equity markets through the lens of just five price charts.…
Read More‘Tis the Season – Earnings Season
This week marks the kickoff to earnings season – that magical time of the year when a large number of public companies release their quarterly earnings reports. This season in particular is going to be a nail-biter as we’ll learn what the impact is of rising inflation, rising interest rates, and a strong dollar on…
Read MoreInflation Has Not Peaked Yet
Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was released yesterday and it’s a doozy. In case you missed it… the CPI climbed to 9.1%. That’s a 41-year high. Not only is inflation at a four-decade high, but the momentum with which it has happened has the Fed scrambling for answers. The increase in consumer prices in June…
Read MoreWe’re Seeing a Bid In Bonds
This will be interesting to any of you bond buyers out there… After a historic meltdown in the first half of 2022, bonds (expressed via Treasuries) are catching a bid. We can debate all day long why Treasuries are seeing strong demand, but what isn’t up for debate is price… and it’s rising. Take a…
Read MoreThe Rules of the Investing Game Have Been Replaced
I spent last week with family, vacationing at a Minnesota lake my parents first took me to in the sixth grade. I immediately fell in love with the fishing and the beautiful outdoors. I would go there five more times with my parents, and once my career settled in, I started visiting again. And now…
Read MoreNow Is Not the Time to Be Greedy
With a PhD in economics, “Dr. Copper” is widely followed as an important economic barometer. Demand for Copper is known to foreshadow things to come. And in an ominous sign, Copper is breaking down. One method to visualize this breakdown is through a simple Relative Strength comparison. Check out this chart comparing the Relative Strength…
Read MoreProceed With Extreme Caution
Heavyweight boxer Mike Tyson was famous for saying, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” My Question: Did Energy just get punched in the mouth? Because it sure looks that way. Until now, the Energy sector has been immune to the rout hitting the rest of the market. Energy has been…
Read MoreIs a Bear Market Rally on the Horizon?
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised its short-term interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point. It’s the largest hike since 1994. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other board members seem determined to reach their 2% inflation target and are concerned about falling behind in their fight against inflation. Perhaps Captain Obvious needs to…
Read MoreThe Rules Have Changed
Earlier in the week, I mentioned a very classic market pattern playing out in the equity indexes. I think it warrants a deeper review. Why? Because 2022 is not 2020, or even 2021, or virtually any other year going back a decade… Any investor still living under the illusion that we’re in the same investment…
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