Posts by Avalon Team
Proceed With Extreme Caution
Heavyweight boxer Mike Tyson was famous for saying, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” My Question: Did Energy just get punched in the mouth? Because it sure looks that way. Until now, the Energy sector has been immune to the rout hitting the rest of the market. Energy has been…
Read MoreIs a Bear Market Rally on the Horizon?
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised its short-term interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point. It’s the largest hike since 1994. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other board members seem determined to reach their 2% inflation target and are concerned about falling behind in their fight against inflation. Perhaps Captain Obvious needs to…
Read MoreThe Rules Have Changed
Earlier in the week, I mentioned a very classic market pattern playing out in the equity indexes. I think it warrants a deeper review. Why? Because 2022 is not 2020, or even 2021, or virtually any other year going back a decade… Any investor still living under the illusion that we’re in the same investment…
Read MoreJune Market Video Update
Bear Markets Are Nothing to Fear
This year’s stock market has been unlike many have seen in their lifetimes. Dramatic declines have been followed by powerful rallies… but at the end of the day, the net trend of the market has been lower. At its recent low, the S&P 500 is down 18% from the beginning of the year. This has…
Read MoreTo Survive This Market You Need to Stack Your Returns
No question about it, this has been a challenging year for investors. Most asset classes continue to post negative returns. Between April and May, investors saw the S&P 500 post seven consecutive weekly declines before staging a rally last week. Noticeably missing is the customary positive returns that bonds often provide during periods of stock…
Read MoreWatch Out for Bear Traps
I’ve been around long enough to have navigated through my share of Bear Markets. I was first rudely introduced to the Bear during the infamous Tech-Wreck. And I can tell you from personal experience, that it was quite a learning experience – an expensive one at that. But maybe those are the best lessons… There…
Read MoreAre Stocks Ready To Bounce?
We’ve had our eye on the 3800 level in the S&P 500 as an area of logical support. Assuming the index finds support at 3800, it sets up the possibility for a bounce-back up to the 4200 level before running into any serious overhead resistance. At the end of last Friday’s trading session, the index…
Read MoreAre You Recession-Ready?
Are we headed for a recession? The growing evidence that suggests the answer to this question is, unfortunately, yes. U.S. GDP fell at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter – another quarter of negative growth would officially mark a recession. Those who think a recession can be avoided are of the groupthink that…
Read MoreBuy the Dips or Sell the Rallies?
Earlier this week, I put out a short video addressing current market conditions using price, breadth, and Relative Strength ratios as our guide. The reasons we had moved all but a small portion of investor funds to the safety of cash are still very much in play, and based on the data, we believe the…
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