A Hawkish Fed & A Defensive Stock Market

By Avalon Team | December 19, 2022 |

As most investors already know, the FOMC hiked interest rates again last week by another 50bps, establishing the Federal Funds rate at 4.25-4.50%. If you listened to Jerome Powell during the press conference, you know that he minced few words and was decidedly hawkish. CPI data came in better than expected, although inflation over 7%…

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Don’t Fight the Fed

By Avalon Team | November 7, 2022

Ask any market technician about the late, great, Marty Zweig and you’ll hear about a time-tested set of trading rules that are just as relevant today as they were when Marty first put pen to paper. For example, the #1 rule: The trend is your friend, don’t fight the tape. This is at the very…

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Kiss the Fed-Pivot Goodbye

By Avalon Team | August 9, 2022

Last week’s labor market report gave the Fed a giant green light to continue its aggressive assault on inflation. So you can just forget the Fed pivot anytime soon.  That means tighter conditions and further demand destruction… Contingent to this week’s CPI report, last week’s labor market data implies a more aggressive Fed going forward…

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The Rules Have Changed

By Avalon Team | June 16, 2022

Earlier in the week, I mentioned a very classic market pattern playing out in the equity indexes. I think it warrants a deeper review.  Why? Because 2022 is not 2020, or even 2021, or virtually any other year going back a decade…  Any investor still living under the illusion that we’re in the same investment…

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Are You Recession-Ready?

By Avalon Team | May 23, 2022

Are we headed for a recession? The growing evidence that suggests the answer to this question is, unfortunately, yes.    U.S. GDP fell at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter – another quarter of negative growth would officially mark a recession. Those who think a recession can be avoided are of the groupthink that…

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