Posts Tagged ‘consumer spending’
The Trouble with Bonds
Whatever the Federal Reserve’s current and future decisions are regarding interest rates, it’s an important reminder that the Fed only controls the direction of short-term interest rates. The market controls the longer end of the curve. U.S. Treasury bond yields are a function of three factors: term premium, inflation, and economic growth expectations. Term premium,…
Read MoreThe Death of 60/40: Where are we now?
At the beginning of 2022, I wrote a series, “The Death of 60/40.” The thesis was pretty simple. Real yields on bonds were negative, stocks were richly valued by historical measure, and the Fed had unleashed a monetary storm resulting in rising inflation. My conclusion that traditional stock and bond portfolios, especially passive index portfolios,…
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