Posts by Avalon Team
Always Focus On the Weight of the Evidence
At Rowe Wealth, our approach is to always focus on the weight of the evidence. Remain unbiased and follow price behavior. Avoid the news and the headlines – the media is not your friend. Start each day from scratch and gather the evidence. We ask ourselves: What does the weight of the evidence tell us…
Read MoreKiss the Fed-Pivot Goodbye
Last week’s labor market report gave the Fed a giant green light to continue its aggressive assault on inflation. So you can just forget the Fed pivot anytime soon. That means tighter conditions and further demand destruction… Contingent to this week’s CPI report, last week’s labor market data implies a more aggressive Fed going forward…
Read MoreIt’s Still a Dollar Story
Any way you slice it, it all still comes down to the dollar. We can talk about interest rates, the Yen, and inversions – there are all kinds of interesting relationships… But none of them may be as important as the impact the direction of the U.S.Dollar has on risk assets around the world. I…
Read MoreIt’s Going to Be a Really Big Week for Investors
On Wednesday, there is the FOMC meeting and announcement on interest rates. The market is currently showing a 75.1% probability that the Fed will increase rates by 75 bps. With inflation running at or above 10% and the Fed mandate to get inflation down to 2%, I am not sure that a mere 75 basis…
Read MoreIt’s All About Finding Support
We can just call today’s theme SUPPORT… Because if what I’m about to show you doesn’t hold support, then the next few months could look a lot like the summer of 2008. There’s a simple way to visualize the overall direction and strength of our equity markets through the lens of just five price charts.…
Read More‘Tis the Season – Earnings Season
This week marks the kickoff to earnings season – that magical time of the year when a large number of public companies release their quarterly earnings reports. This season in particular is going to be a nail-biter as we’ll learn what the impact is of rising inflation, rising interest rates, and a strong dollar on…
Read MoreInflation Has Not Peaked Yet
Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was released yesterday and it’s a doozy. In case you missed it… the CPI climbed to 9.1%. That’s a 41-year high. Not only is inflation at a four-decade high, but the momentum with which it has happened has the Fed scrambling for answers. The increase in consumer prices in June…
Read MoreWe’re Seeing a Bid In Bonds
This will be interesting to any of you bond buyers out there… After a historic meltdown in the first half of 2022, bonds (expressed via Treasuries) are catching a bid. We can debate all day long why Treasuries are seeing strong demand, but what isn’t up for debate is price… and it’s rising. Take a…
Read MoreThe Rules of the Investing Game Have Been Replaced
I spent last week with family, vacationing at a Minnesota lake my parents first took me to in the sixth grade. I immediately fell in love with the fishing and the beautiful outdoors. I would go there five more times with my parents, and once my career settled in, I started visiting again. And now…
Read MoreNow Is Not the Time to Be Greedy
With a PhD in economics, “Dr. Copper” is widely followed as an important economic barometer. Demand for Copper is known to foreshadow things to come. And in an ominous sign, Copper is breaking down. One method to visualize this breakdown is through a simple Relative Strength comparison. Check out this chart comparing the Relative Strength…
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